03 · Capabilities
Macro
Macro work means reading the current state of the economy before the official print, and saying how sure you are. We build nowcasts and indicators that report their revisions, their stability, and their uncertainty alongside the estimate.
What you might be trying to decide.
Engagements start from a decision. These are the kinds of questions macro work usually begins with.
- 01Where is inflation running this month, before the print, and how wide is the band around that?
- 02Has the labour market turned, and which high-frequency series said so first?
- 03How has this nowcast revised across vintages, and what drove each revision?
- 04What is the Federal Reserve signalling, scored consistently across the cycle rather than read by hand?
Work we can scope.
Capabilities are areas of work, not off-the-shelf products. Each is scoped to the question, and its status is shown honestly.
| No. | Capability | What it covers | Form | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA-01 | Inflation tracking | High-frequency inflation measurement ahead of official prints. | data | Needs Confirmation |
| MA-02 | Macro nowcasts | GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and employment ahead of official releases. | data | Needs Confirmation |
| MA-03 | Employment tracking | Job posting and labor market data. | data | Needs Confirmation |
| MA-04 | Alternative data indicators | Composite leading indicators from high-frequency activity data. | data | Needs Confirmation |
| MA-05 | Fed communications analysis | Systematic scoring of Federal Reserve language across the rate cycle. | research | Needs Confirmation |
Form: data · model · tool · researchStatus reflects the internal portfolio inventory and is updated as work is confirmed
How we approach it
- Dynamic factor models and bridge equations with vintage-aware evaluation
- Pseudo-real-time backtests so the model only sees what was available at the time
- Revision histories published with every estimate
- Density forecasts with calibration checks, not point estimates alone
- Text scoring with a fixed lexicon and out-of-sample tests
What an engagement produces
- Nowcast series with full vintage history
- Contribution analysis by data release
- Method note covering data sources, lags, and revision behavior
- Calibration and accuracy report
- Dashboard or data feed, where the engagement calls for one
Have a macro question?
Bring the decision and whatever evidence you have. We will tell you what kind of engagement fits, and what it would produce.
Discuss a question